In short
- How it works, in layman’s terms: We break down the path to the goal in stages: how many people will receive the message, how many of them belong to an important group, how many will read it with understanding, how many will believe it, how many will maintain their trust…
- Example (HYPOTHESIS, data invented): Goal: 4,000 people from the target group declare confidence after the crisis communication.
- What most strongly changes the outcome: The sensitivity ranking shows where to focus the work: 1) the reach of the communication (0.66), 2) the number of recipients who believed it (0.41), 3) the share of the important group (0.40).
- What the simulation does not simulate: It does not predict the future. It is an interpretation of accepted assumptions.
The example is fictional, without a client and without names. All assumptions have the label "HYPOTHESIS".
In a crisis, management asks: „How much does this cost us and will it work?” Usually they get one number. One number gives a false sense of certainty. The Monte Carlo simulation (i.e., repeatedly drawing the results within limits that we ourselves consider possible) shows the range.
How it works, in layman's terms
We break down the path to the goal into stages: how many people will receive the message, how many of them belong to an important group, how many will read it with understanding, how many will believe it, and how many will maintain trust after 30 days. For each stage, we provide three values: the worst, the most likely, and the best. The computer randomly selects 20,000 times and calculates the result.
Example (HYPOTHESIS, data invented)
Goal: 4,000 people from the target group declare their trust after the crisis communication. Budget for the response: PLN 60,000 net.
- Chance of achieving the goal: 15.3%.
- P10: 1,420 people. This is a bad scenario; there are 10% draws below it.
- P50: 2,573 people. This is the distribution method.
- P80: 3,702 people. In 80% draws, the result is not higher.
- P90: 4,425 people. This is a good scenario.
Recommendation for the management: with these assumptions, the goal is too high or the budget is too low. It is better to know this before spending money than after.
What most strongly changes the outcome
The sensitivity ranking shows where to focus the work: 1) the reach of the communication (0.66), 2) how many recipients believed it (0.41), 3) the share of the important group (0.40). Maintaining trust after 30 days has the least impact (0.24). In other words, spending money to reach the right people will yield more than tweaking the content after the fact.
What the simulation does not simulate
- It does not predict the future. It is an interpretation of accepted assumptions.
- It ignores seasonality, competition, and the strength of the brand if we don't include them.
- It does not replace measurement. After 7 and 30 days, we compare the actual result with the distribution and improve the model.
- The decision is made by a person. With a financial commitment, two people decide.
What happens next if this is your crisis
Simulation helps assess the risk and scope of the outcome, but it does not replace a crisis plan. How our work looks like during a crisis: crisis management at Commplace.
How we work at Commplace
In Commwork® AI models, we explicitly record each assumption with an origin label (fact, reference point, hypothesis), and the result is sent to the management cockpit within the P50/P80/P90 range. Do you want to see this in your data? Write to us at [email protected].
Reproducibility: model.json, random seed 20260815, script monte_carlo_cele.py (Commplace Digital Analysis).
Disclaimer: The simulation results are illustrative of the assumptions made (HYPOTHESIS), not a forecast or guarantee of the result. The numerical example does not refer to any specific company. The content was prepared using AI. It does not constitute legal or financial advice; decisions are made by the organization’s management.